Archive for Tatum Ranch
IT’S A GREAT TIME TO MOVE TO PHOENIX
Well, it’s fall and it’s our best time of year! We wait all
through the hot summer to finally get to the “season” here in Phoenix. It’s still a little hot during the day, but the daylight hours are shorter, thus the nights are getting cooler. The real estate market here continues to move along. While the bulk of the sales are below $200,000, there are many, many opportunities to get a great buy at all price points. I’m not a fan of short sales — non-responsive selling agents — non-responsive banks — agents taking multiple offers to drive price up — months of waiting with no word. Frankly, I try to steer people away from them unless there’s realtor notations that say that they have everything in place and can close.
Lender owned properties can sometimes be a challenge as well. I’ve closed a couple of these, but once again you’ll have multiple offers and the selling agent (who is representing the bank) will come back with “submit your highest and best offer”….these do workout more often than short sales. Keep in mind that these distressed properties are sold “as is”. If you’re handy, it’s great so long as the property is structurally sound. Be sure to get an inspection. Most of these homes are also missing the kitchen appliances as well.
Because the short sale and lender owned properties are running the market, the “normal” type of listing is taking a hit. However, keep in mind that there’s most likely someone living in the home and taking care of it on a day to day basis, the appliances are still in place, they will negotiate better than a bank, you’ll get answers to your offers. Also, if you’re able to wait a little bit to buy, the short sales will eventually turn into lender owned if not sold prior to auction.
All in all it’s still a good time to move to Phoenix….our winters are worth the wait! In addition, real estate is the best hedge against inflation…..
PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
While the number of closings has been creeping up
over the last several months, we should not get too excited just yet. We still have a long way to go. While the foreclosures tend to dominate the market, we still need to pull in traditional buyers to get the market up out of the hole. We are still seeing investors purchasing the really low end properties. Hopefully, they will repair them and hang on to them for awhile while the market stabilizes. The only way we’ll see an increase in value is when the demand is higher than the inventory.
I’m not an advocate of runaway price increases…..that is what contributed to putting up in this mess. We need to see a gradual increase in prices as buyers gain confidence in the marketplace once again. Let’s see what the next report brings.
PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET NEWS
The sky isn’t falling after all….there’s good news to be had
out there in the form of statistics and housing sales within the Phoenix metropolitan area. This information from Grubb & Ellis commercial, timely none the less: ”the first quarter of 2009, we saw an improvement in almost ALL markets including housing (sic)…..most experts predicting the bottom to form in the next couple of quarters.”
Other interesting statistics:
- Phoenix ranked #1 in most affordable of western cities.
- Phoenix is now #9 in foreclosures.
- Active listings dropped below 50,000 since February, 2007.
- New home closings up 16%, resales up 42%.
- Builders are reducing their inventory which is a critical step toward recovery.
All of these indicators are just a bright spot that need to be watched over the remainder of 2009. It’s still a great time to buy as the prices are competitive and the interest rates are still low. All indications are that the rates will begin to climb throughout the summer. Because we’ve never seen anything like this before it is still anyone’s guess as to how this will all play out.
PHOENIX REAL ESTATE SALES STATISTICS
Statistics as of April 3, 2009–Good News
Positive trends continue to improve as the dynamic change in our market is still steady.
Single family detached home availability dropped 4% to 35,394. Closing experience a strong upward trend in the last month at 7,461 to decrease overall supply to 4-3/4 months. January, 2006 was the last time we were below a 5 month supply.
A 10% increase was seen in pending sales in one week, as they continued to climb to 13,859!
The best marketing in the Valley at the present time are Phoenix and the West Valley, now at 3 ¾ months each. Close behind is the SE Valley at 4 ¼ months. These are definitely sellers markets!
A 50% increase in the number of pending sales over the last 6 weeks is a positive sign for Scottsdale. Under $ 1M market rose from 351 to 527, and we should begin to see an increase in closings soon.
Over $1M is at just over 3 years supply for Scottsdale! PV is at 7 years. Pendings have increased and the slow closing rate should improve for PV over the next 90 days.
Our market is continuing to experience rapid improvement. Media coverage should lean more toward the positive side soon. A headline on the front page of the Arizona Republic last Saturday was positive for a change!
MLS Statistics
Area Breakdown
Overall Market Since last week, inventories down 4%. Active listings totaled 35,394 with 7,461 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 4-¾ month supply.
In Phoenix over the last week, inventories down 5%. Active listings totaled 7,880 with 2,140 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 3-¾ month supply.
In the west valley last week, inventories down 6%. Active listings totaled 8,482 with 2,218 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 3-¾ month supply.
In the NE valley last week, inventories down 2%. Active listings totaled 5,510 with 354 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 15-½ month supply.
In the SE valley last week, inventories down 3%. Active listings totaled 8,048 with 1,848 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 4-¼ month supply.
In Scottsdale last week, inventories down 2%. Active listings totaled 1,423 with 36 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 39-½ month supply.
Scottsdale under $1m last week, inventories down 2%. Active listings totaled 2,419 with 225 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 10-¾ month supply.
Paradise Valley last week, inventories down 1%. Active listings totaled 574 with 6 closings over the last month. This is approximately a 96 month supply.
MORTGAGE NEWS - PHOENIX
Here’s what’s happening in the lending business
these days. While interest rates are at historic lows it seems that money is still somewhat hard to come by. February saw a tremendous increase in applications for refinancing. However, many homeowners are still running up against roadblocks from banks. Does anyone else think that the banks are all laughing at us once we leave?
Apparently, it is still difficult to get the banks to loan money even though they’ve gotten lots and lots of it from the government — no wait, from us! What are they doing with it? Investing? Putting it away for a rainy day?
I digress. Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who is able to get some of that cash. But, there are many who are not getting too far. I know that there are people out there with stellar credit and they are having trouble.
Until the financial institutions are willing to give up the green we will continue to see slow recovery from this meltdown. Hang in there…..better days are ahead. And, remember cash is king….this is still a great time to buy and lest we forget about FHA!
HOW TO STAGE ON A BUDGET
You’re putting your home up for sale. How can you
shine? How do you compete with your neighbors and make your home stand out? STAGING!!! It is a proven fact that people who stage their homes sell faster than those who don’t. I’ve posted about this before so I won’t bore you with the same information. However, I will suggest how to stage on a budget. You don’t need to spend a lot of money. The vast majority of staging can be done with what you already have and perhaps adding small things to change the feel in the home.
Here are a few tips from me and the REALTOR, April 2009 publication:
CLOSETS: Here’s the thing, people tend to hide all manner of sins by throwing stuff into closets thinking that potential buyers are not looking in there. HELLO, buyers have stuff and need to know if a home has enough space to store it in. Clear the floor, put things in bins or start to pack all together and put the boxes into the garage or a storage locker. Make sure your belongings are neatly on the hangers; take things out if it looks overstuffed. If there are items on the top shelves, make nice neat stacks, use boxes. Remember, it does matter.
CLOSE ALL OPEN DOORS, ETC: Believe it or not, people don’t want to walk into a room with the closet doors open, the garage cabinet doors open, the toilet lids up, etc. The only doors that should be open are the ones leading into the room(s). Open the window treatments; if you have curtains, pull them to the sides….let the sun shine in!
CREATING A FOCAL POINT: Stand at your front door. What is the first thing you see? For example, if you have a fireplace, that is the focal point, highlight it….this is especially true in a home that has a family room and/or great room. If you first walk into your home and you have the living room/dining room, clear them up. Make the table in the dining room the focal point. Put a nice center piece on the table with a runner. Perhaps set the table as if waiting for your dinner guests.
LIGHTS: When showing your home, put ALL the lights on add wattage if necessary. Even in the day time. Light up the space. People have more positive thoughts when it’s light inside….if it’s a dark space, it’s not happy! Light is uplifting.
SITTING AREA: Make sure that either in the living room or the family room there is a “sitting area” so that potential buyers can sit down and chat……this type of set up encourages people to feel comfortable in your home….they can better feel how the home fits them. Have a space with sofas and/or chairs facing each other and no clutter around. Clear off that coffee table. This says “come in, sit down and relax”….very important. You want your home to be welcoming.
BATHROOMS: Put away all your stuff! Nobody wants to see your toothbrush or deodorant. Get a little basket and put all that stuff in that and then place it under the sink or in the linen closet. Use one of your towel bars and put up “nice” towels that you don’t use. Tie a ribbon in the center or use rafia to tie a bow. Place little soaps in a little dish on the counter to add fragrance. Make sure the bathroom is clean! That means the tub/shower. If you only have a plastic shower curtain, pull it to the side. Remove all dirty/used towels and wash clothes.
REFRESH PAINT: You may not need to paint the whole house, but perhaps the door frames, baseboards and painted doors need a little touch up. It’s amazing what a little paint can do for a home. You don’t want to have any marks on the walls, it makes the home looked abused or ill cared for….you don’t want that to be the first impression.
PETS: We love our pets. It’s ok to have pets and their beds and bowls. Find a space where these items are out of the way. Make sure the food dishes are clean and that there’s no food or water mess around. If you have a cat, make sure the litter box is always clean. When we live with animals, we get used to the odors. Have someone you know walk into the house and tell you if they smell your animal. If they do, deal with it….right away!
FIRST IMPRESSIONS: Whether driving up or walking up to a home, the front entrance is the first impression. No turning back on this one. You cannot take back what a person’s initial impression is of your home. Make sure the front lawn is neat and mowed; all bushes and trees trimmed and not overhanging the walkway. Do you have a bunch of live plants by the front door? Is it blocking the entrance? Move them…..put them in the back in a nice area. Is the door and door frame clean and/or freshly painted/stained? Is the hose out? Roll it up and put it off to the side. Are there toys lying about? Put them away. Make sure the garage door is closed and clean. If you have a carport, clear up the clutter. Get a planter (they are inexpensive at WalMart or Target)…plant seasonal flowers and place the pot at the walkway or if there’s room by the front door…..adding color to the front of a home is huge…..people love flowers.
All in all you might have some of these supplies on hand. If not, these are inexpensive fix-ups. Get creative. Be careful not to add more just take away clutter and enhance what you’ve got. Step out of the home you’ve created and look at it like a house (a commodity) for sale. If you were looking at houses would you buy your home? Do you have expectations for a home you are seeing for the first time? Well, buyers for your home are expecting the same thing!!
If you’re unsure of being objective ask a friend or relative. Tell them to not worry about hurting your feelings…..remember you’re trying to sell the house…..strangers will be much more critical. Be proud of what you’ve created and most of all have fun!
CAUTION - OVERLY OPTIMISTIC REAL ESTATE NEWS
I’m the first person to say YEAH!!! to positive news
with regard to real estate. However, I caution you that while there are some things that are good, we still have a long way to go. Housing starts are up…..yes, because the prices of new homes have dropped substantially to allow people to be able to afford them. More homes in escrow….yes, this includes all foreclosed properties, short sales and non-distressed properties. This is good because it gets more homes off the market and starts to level the playing field a bit.
We must keep in mind that while there’s a tidbit here and there of good news, we are far from seeing the end. People continue to lose their jobs. And, while I don’t think Phoenix is hurting as bad as other parts of the country, we do have job loss.
The fact remains, if you don’t need to sell, DON’T! If you have money and want to buy an investment property then go for it. I would love to have a bunch of listings, I’d love to have your listing, but I still say wait if you can.
The affordability of this market is bringing new buyers in. First time buyers….that is good. I hear that there are multiple offers on properties….we are talking properties that are priced mostly below $200,000. Don’t get me wrong this is a good thing, because as these multiple offers come in, that drives up the price because there is demand.
All in all, this Country is amazing and we shall overcome this housing isse. It’s just unfortunate that the house of cards came tumbling down so hard on so many. My heart goes out to those who have lost their homes due to job loss or perhaps were in an ARM and the payment just got out of control.
We need to, as responsible members of this society, take responsibility for our own destiny. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Think about what you are doing. Can you afford it? Do you have the required down payment? Is your job secure (is anybody’s)? Americans are smart people and we love that we can work hard, save our money and buy our own home. This is true pride of ownership. Why would you put yourself in a situation that causes you stress? Home ownership is both hard and wonderful. Do it for yourself and your family. Do it because you love the home, not because you think you’re going to make a quick buck. Those days are over for awhile and anyway isn’t that part of what got us in this mess in the first place????
VALLEY OF THE SUN RE SALES UPDATE
There are signs that the Valley’s real estate market is beginning to rebound.
According to realtor, Don Keys, as of mid-March, over 4,700 homes have sold, compared to 5,400 for all of Februay, 2009. March of 2008 sales were just over 2,500. Keep in mind that the foreclosure and short sale market factor into 2009 numbers.
Keys says it is not unusual lately to see multiple offers on one property. With the abundance of homes for sale, the drastic drop in prices as well as low interest rates have brought more buyers to the table. Over 11,000 homes are under contract and going through escrow. That’s more than 2x’s the number seen in recent months.
That being said, perhaps up to 20% of the sales will not close due to unqualified buyers, however, we are still looking at about twic as many pending sales as we normally have and most definitely a sign of a shift in the market.
AIMEE & JAYDEN UPDATE
I spent a few hours with Aimee and Jayden yesterday. We didn’t have any plans, I just went over to her apartment to spend time with them. As I mentioned, Aimee’s got a good head on her shoulders. Jayden is a sweet little boy. He’s very comfortable around people; a great sign. He’s a typical toddler boy who likes to climb and throw and has a great little arm….he throws really straight!
I brought him a giant coloring book and large crayons. He had fun just handing me crayons and letting me draw. We went out into the yard and spent time on the jungle gym. He loves to swing and play peek a boo. I really enjoyed playing with him which allowed Aimee was reading a book on toddlers.
We got to talking and it seems that she has to take in a roommate because the apartment is 2 bedroom. Hello…..what is Jayden? Isn’t he another person? I cannot believe that the State would force her into rooming with another girl (supposedly a pregnant) one in this tiny, tiny place.
In May, when Aimee turns 21, she has to find other living arrangements. She’s only been here since December. Her financial responsibility is $200 per month. She makes less than $9.00 per hour, so you do the math. The apartment is filled with furniture that is not hers as most of these young women are moved from place to place, have no car or family to speak of, so they have to be mobile.
I know Aimee wants more for herself and Jayden. She will get there and I hope I get to see it. I’m going to try to take some photos, because Jayden’s so darn cute!!!
More to come…stay tuned!
REO PITFALLS
She was scheduled to close on March 15th. It is March 20th and she still has not closed. She asked me what she should do. Well, I asked why her realtor had not issued a cure notice to the bank. What about the bank’s representative? Both the buyer and seller agent should be all over these properties.
Now because the property has not closed, this woman is going to lose her rate lock. She’s frantic.
This should not have happened. Her agent has a responsibility to represent his/her client. This is a lack of representation, in my opinion. How could they have let this ball drop?
I know we hear horror stories about short sales and foreclosures. The banks are inundated with these properties, but the housing crisis has been going on for awhile. The banks need to get their act together. It’s extremely frustrating for all parties when no one knows “who’s on first”.
Buyers need to beware of the pitfalls of buying a foreclosed property. In addition, be sure that you have an agent that stays on top of the situation. There’s nothing more stressful than rearranging your life around a closing date and having it put off due to incompetence.
